Eritreans are increasingly on edge as rhetoric between Asmara and Addis Ababa grows sharper, raising fears that a new conflict could erupt between the long-estranged neighbours.
For Tewolde, a resident of Asmara who has fought in two major conflicts, the anxiety feels painfully familiar. Having taken part in the 1998–2000 border war with Ethiopia and later in the Tigray conflict, he now fears that another round of fighting would bring fresh devastation.
“If the war starts, many people will go to the front… many children will lose their fathers, mothers will lose their husbands, parents will lose their children,” said Tewolde, speaking under a false name for his safety.
The Horn of Africa rivals have recently traded accusations of provocation, fuelling concern within Eritrea, one of the world’s most closed and authoritarian states. Communication from inside the country is extremely limited, and even short testimonies require careful relay through intermediaries.
Eritrea, ruled by President Isaias Afwerki since independence in 1993, has long been criticised for indefinite national conscription and widespread human-rights abuses. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with Eritrea, but the relationship deteriorated again after the two countries jointly fought Tigrayan forces in a conflict marked by grave atrocities.
Asmara is angered that Ethiopia made peace with Tigray without its involvement and accuses Addis Ababa of plotting to seize the Eritrean port of Assab. Ethiopia, meanwhile, alleges that Eritrea is preparing for renewed hostilities. Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos recently warned that “Eritrean aggression and provocation is making further restraint more and more difficult.”
Mehari, an Eritrean in his 30s who served during the Tigray war, said many young people are now fleeing. “Young people are fleeing en masse to Ethiopia and to Sudan to avoid a possible war,” he said
Luwan, an Eritrean woman now living elsewhere in East Africa, said her family back home has been shaken by reports that local officials are preparing residents for potential mobilisation. Some mothers, she said, have still not been told what happened to children who disappeared during the Tigray war, yet are being asked to send remaining sons and daughters to the front.
Researcher and former independence activist Mohamed Kheir Omer said many Eritreans feel trapped between two leaders whose decisions carry heavy consequences. “We are torn between Isaias who does not care about his population, and Abiy who thinks only of his own legacy,” he said.
For Luwan, watching events unfold from afar brings only despair—and the fear that Eritrea’s cycle of loss may be repeating itself once more.
